When we hear the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and redrawing of “constituency boundaries,” our minds immediately jump to heated political debates. We think about which regions will gain extra constituencies, and which will lose constituencies.
Like with any other boundary redrawing, there will the inevitable accusations of gerrymandering. It is a political hot potato, no doubt. But what if we paused for a moment and looked at it from a different angle? That angle is our tax wallets?
What does a boundary review really cost the average Kenyan taxpayer? This is especially so with a major election just two years away?
The truth is, a full-scale boundary review before 2027 is not just a political exercise. It is an incredibly expensive administrative undertaking. Currently, the Kenyan economy can ill afford.
Here is why hitting the pause button by the IEBC makes pure fiscal sense.
IEBC Logistical Price
The sheer logistical price tag is mind-blowing. The IEBC would need a massive cash injection to carry out a constitutionally sound review. That money is tax money. We are talking about hiring hundreds of temporary staff, such as demographers and cartographers. There will also be a need for IT experts and data clerks.
The temporary staff would need to be deployed across all 47 counties to conduct fresh, verifiable population censuses in specific areas. This involves transport, per diems, mapping software, and endless public hearings to gather views from the citizens.
This is not a small project. It is a multi-billion-shilling national undertaking. At a time when the citizens are being squeezed by the high cost of living and a heavy tax burden, this may not be the most prudent use of public funds?
That is money that could be channeled towards stabilizing the economy. For example, the money can be used to support education, health, farmers, and those struggling. The money can also be used to pay off debts to ease future pressure.
National and County Tax Cost
But the tax cost does not stop at the IEBC’s door. The most significant financial tremor will be felt at the national and county levels if new constituencies are created. Let us say the review leads to, for example, ten new constituencies.
This means we would need to fund ten new constituency offices. The offices will be complete with members of staff, vehicles, and operational budgets. More significantly, it means salaries, benefits, and hefty car grants for ten new members of parliament.
Now, consider the ripple effect. The National Government Constituencies Development Fund (NG-CDF) would have to be divided further. While new areas might gain, existing constituencies would see their allocation shrink.
More constituencies will stall ongoing development projects such as schools, structures that currently need completion, or health centres awaiting equipment. This would create a cycle of unfinished projects and wasted prior investment.
It is like trying to bake a cake for ten people, but just as it is about to be served, ten more guests arrive. You have to slice it thinner, and nobody gets enough. We would be stretching our limited resources even thinner, potentially diluting development impact across the board.
National Debts
The elephant in the room is our national debt. Kenya is walking a tightrope with its debt obligations. Every shilling counts. New constituencies will need to commit to new, permanent, and recurring expenses.
Some of those expenses are like the cost of additional MPs and their constituencies. This is a long-term financial commitment that we should not take lightly. The expenses will lock the country into higher recurrent expenditure for years to come.
That is money that can be used for productive investments. Those investments will in turn grow the economy or service the debts (domestic and international). The national debt is currently weighing the country down.
Businesses and Investors Uncertainty
A boundary review also creates immense uncertainty for businesses and investors. Electoral boundaries influence everything from market segmentation to development projects.
A sudden shift can disrupt long-term business plans and deter investment. This is at a time when we desperately need to create jobs.
Stability and predictability of the business environment are key ingredients for economic growth. Throwing the electoral map into flux three years before an election creates unnecessary anxiety in an already fragile economic environment.
What should the IEBC do?
This is not to say that a review should not happen at all. The constitution mandates the IEBC to ensure fair representation. However, timing is everything. Rushing into it now, with the 2027 election clock ticking, seems fiscally irresponsible.
It would be a costly, rushed process that risks being overly politicized. This may lead to expensive legal challenges for the country to defend.
Perhaps the wiser, more financially sound approach is to allow the 2027 election to proceed with the current boundaries. This will give the economy a chance to stabilize.
After the election, a comprehensive, deliberate, and less politically motivated review can be planned before the next election in 2032. This will be done with a clear and transparent budget.
Our pockets, and our country’s balance sheet, would thank us for the patience.
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